Met Office issues forecast update after '3-month heatwave’ warning this summer (2024)

This summer has a 35 percent chance of being hot (Image: Met Office)

The Met Office has issued a forecast update after a 'three-month heatwave’ warning this summer.

A “meandering and branching” jet stream will keep rain out of Britain ahead of what is set to be another hot summer.

The Met Office’s three-month outlook predicts a near double the average chance of ‘hot’ weather until July.

Global climatic drivers could also help drive a long-awaited scorchio, including a transition from El Nino to La Nina and changes in stratospheric wind patterns.

Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden said: “June is likely to start on a decent note for many of us, with warm or potentially hot temperatures spilling over from the end of May.

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A three-month heatwave is forecast for the summer (Image: Netweather)

“Some projections have identified a potentially hot period of weather around mid-July, and this could last for an extended period.

“During this time, there is no reason we couldn’t see temperatures in the mid-to high-30Cs. Temperatures are likely to be above-average for the month as a whole.”

This summer has a 35 percent, 1.8 times the norm, chance of being hot, and a mere five percent chance of being cool, according to the Met Office.

A waning El Nino­­ – a warming of the eastern Pacific which set in last summer­­ - is expected to pendulum swing into a counterpart La-Nino cooling.

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Delayed development of stratospheric winds high above the atmosphere will also favour drier, settled conditions, experts say.

A Met Office spokesman said: “Drivers relevant to the current outlook include warming of the UK climate consistent with wider global warming trends.

“The El-Nino Southern Oscillation is expected to transition towards neutral or a La Nina in the outlook period with continued cooling of tropical East Pacific waters.

“And looking at stratospheric winds, the normal spring transition from a westerly to an easterly direction is delayed this year, slightly favouring more settled conditions in the upcoming three months.”

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