Pat Brennan|Cincinnati Enquirer
NASHVILLE– Don't call Xavier basketball's and Florida State's Sunday meeting in the NCAA Tournament a rematch, at least not if you're looking at the game from the Musketeers' perspective.
Twelve months on from Xavier's dominant tournament upset of third-seeded Florida State Seminoles, the teams' meeting in the second round of the 2017 NCAA Tournament in Orlando holds little meaning for Sunday's game at the same stage of the competition.
The programs and head coaches, and even some of the players involved are the same, but it's hardly a like-for-like replay of last year's game.
The Musketeers also aren't preparing for the possibility of extra motivation for the Seminoles because of the loss they handed FSU.
More: No. 1 Xavier basketball downs Texas Southern in NCAA Tournament opener, 102-83
"I mean, I don't know how you prepare for that," Xavier head coach Chris Mack said during a Saturday press conference. "You just say it: 'Hey, they want revenge.' It's not going to change anything X's and O's wise. Our guys want to go to Los Angeles, too."
No. 1 seed Xavier (29-5 overall) is instead focusing ona ninth-seeded Seminoles team (21-11 overall) that has depth, height and poses a legitimate threat to the Musketeers' designs of advancing to next week's West Region games in Los Angeles.
"We are now petrified of their ball pressure and their ability to rattle offenses," Mack said. "They get out in passing lanes and deny. They have such incredible makeup ability when you get around them at blocking shots and that leading to the break... Florida State, as a whole, they have bigger, stronger players than Texas Southern. No disrespect to Texas Southern, but you have Trayvon Reed and a bunch of guys who are 6-foot-4. Now you have Phil Cofer, 6-foot-8, 6-foot-9, shooting three's. Every one of their wings are 6-foot-5, 6-foot-6, 225 (pounds). I mean, they're high-major, ACC-caliber talented players."
Florida State advanced to the second round with a 67-54 win over No. 8 Missouri.
Prior to that, the Seminoles went .500 in Atlantic Coast Conference play in earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
THREE KEYS TO VICTORY FOR XAVIER
• The Musketeers need another successful night in the paint. That task will be made more difficult by the immense size of Florida State's frontcourt, and their size up and down their roster, as Mack noted.
Xavier was able to attack Texas Southern 7-foot-2 shot-stopperTrayvon Reed. The Musketeers' Kerem Kanter finessed his way to success in that matchup while 6-foot-8 sophom*ore center Tyrique Jones used brute force to battle with Reed and score.
On Sunday, Kanter, Jones and 6-foot-10 senior center Sean O'Mara will go head-to-head with 7-foot-4 junior Christ Koumadje and freshman 7-foot Ike Obiagu.
•Can some combination of Trevon Bluiett, J.P. Macura, and Kerem Kanter recreate their combined 79 points of offense, or something close to that?These three players will find their shots, and they'll have to knock them down because you can rest assured Florida State won't go quietly into that good night as Texas Southern did. Based on comments made Saturday by Florida State players (who did not mention Kanter), it sounds likely the Seminoles will focus the majority of the defensive attention on Bluiett and Macura, although that will be easier said than done. And that approach would likely leave gaping holes elsewhere in FSU's defensive perimeter. That could open up big opportunities for Kanter, along with players like junior Kaiser Gates, a distance shooter who gashed the Seminoles in last season's NCAA Tournament win with 12 points from 3-point range. The Musketeers were 11 of 17 from distance in last year's drubbing of FSU.
• Chris Mack's deployment of the zone defensecould prove key. While names and faces have changed from last year's XU-FSU game, head coaches will try to keep a core offensive philosophy intact from year to year. And last year, the Musketeers sat in a 2-3 zone for long stretches, forcing FSU to shoot from distance. Last year, the 'Noles went 4 of 21 from 3-point range against Xavier. This season, they're shooting three's at a 35-percent clip– the fourth-to-last 3-point shooting percentage in the ACC this year. Overall, FSU is a 47-percent shooting team. That was third-best in the ACC this year. Finding a way to keep FSU out beyond the 3-point line and disrupting the resulting shots from out there could be a major key for XU.
• BONUS KEY: Will Naji Marshall play Sunday? Mack still isn't sure. Marshall missed the vast majority of Friday's tournament opener with back issues. Mack Saturday didn't bring much progress for the freshman.
"He didn't feel great this morning so we held him out of practice," Mack said. "We're hopeful that he'll be well enough to play tomorrow. I'm not trying to be coy. I just don't know. Hopefully, his back loosens up over the next 24 hours."
Marshall started 16 of Xavier's 33 games to date, including Friday's NCAA Tournament game. He averages 8.1 points per game and was a unanimous All-Freshman Team selection by Big East Conference coaches.
ODDS OF VICTORY
Xavier's odds of beating Florida State have improved in the last 24 hours, according to the statistical analysis gurus of FiveThiryEight.com. The Musketeers now have a 71 percent chance to beat the Seminoles and advance to the Sweet 16. That's up one percent from Friday, according to the website.
Xavier has a 33 percent chance of winning a game against a to-be-determined opponent– either No. 4 Gonzaga or No. 5 Ohio State– to advance to the Elite Eight. And then the Musketeers have a 17 percent chance to advance to the Final Four as of today.
Xavier's odds of advancing to the Final Four are 10th-best in the remaining NCAA Tournament field, and third-best in the West Region behind North Carolina (25 percent) and Gonzaga (25 percent).
REFLECTING ON TOURNAMENT HISTORY
It won't be news to many hardcore college hoops fans by now, but Virginia, the NCAA Tournament's top overall seed, lost to 16th-seeded UMBC Friday night.
The loss will live in Cavaliers infamy, and in UMBC Retrievers lore (yes, the athletic department's surname is "Retrievers," as in the golden retriever breed of dog. JustGoogle search their logo).
Xavier players and Mack reflected on the monumental moment in NCAA Tournament history during their Saturday remarks.
"Amazing game. Those kids will be remembered for the rest of their lives for what they did last night. It was pretty cool," Mack said. "I can also feel for Tony Bennett who does it the right way. He's a phenomenal coach. He's a great person. He had a special year. Tough to see him go out like that."
Kanter agreed, saying: "They call it March Madness for a reason. Things happen in March. I think Virginia is a great team, but every team that plays in March Madness plays with a purpose. It's their last game of their season so I give UMBC a lot of credit."
SCOUTING REPORTS
No. 1-seed Xavier Musketeers
Record: 29-5, 16-3 Big East
Offense: 85.2 ppg
Defense: 75.4 ppg
PROJECTED LINEUP (Player, Pos., HT., Key Stat):
Trevon BluiettG,6-6,19.6 ppg
Naji Marshall F, 6-7, 8 ppg
J.P. Macura G, 6-5, 12.7 ppg
Kerem Kanter C, 6-10, 10.8 ppg
Quentin Goodin G, 6-4, 8.7 ppg
NOTEWORTHY: While not officially listed as such, freshman forward Naji Marshall appears to be questionable for Sunday’s game (back). Marshall played just 16 minutes in Xavier’s first-round victory against No. 16 Texas Southern and received treatment in the locker room for most of the contest.
No. 9 seed Florida State
Record: 21-11, 9-9 ACC
Offense: 81.3 ppg
Defense: 73.8 ppg
PROJECTED LINEUP:
Phil Cofer F, 6-8, 13.1 ppg
Christ Koumadje C, 7-4, 7.1 ppg
Terance Mann G, 6-6, 12.8 ppg
Braian Angola G, 6-6, 12.7 ppg
C.J. Walker G, 6-1, 8.3 ppg
PLAYERS TO WATCH: The Florida State bench. The lion’s share of the FSU scoring production came from its bench players. Mfiondu Kabengele led the team with 14 points, Trent Forrest scored 10 points and P.J. Savoy went for 12 points while none of FSU’s starters scored more than nine points.
THE GAME
NCAA West Regional, Second Round
No. 1 seed Xavier (29-5) vs. No. 9 seed Florida State (21-11)
Tipoff: Approx. 8:40 p.m. Friday at Bridgestone Arena (17,578), Nashville, Tenn.
TV/Radio:TNT/55-WKRC for pregame, play-by-play carried by WLW-AM (700)
