It’s champion versus champion as junior middleweight king Jermell Charlo rises two weight classes to challenge Saul Alvarez for the super middleweight crown on Saturday night (Showtime PPV, 8 PM EST).
Any time the two absolute best in the world from two different weight classes square off, it’s an event. In this case, it’s also a fight between two veterans in need of a big performance.
Charlo has been sidelined by a hand injury, unable to capitalize on a career-best win over Brian Castano until this superfight came his way. Alvarez hasn’t looked quite the beast he did before the loss to Dmitrey Bivol. If their pedigree meshes in the moment, fans will get the sort of fight that could give both men something to hang their hat on.
Is Alvarez, the larger man on paper, too good and too big for Charlo or is Charlo ready to move from boxing start to superstar?
Let’s get into it.
Stats and Stakes
Saul Alvarez
Age: 33
Titles: Ring/WBC/WBA Super Middleweight (2020-Present, 4 Defenses); WBO Super Middleweight (2021-Present, 3 Defenses); Lineal/TBRB/IBF Super Middleweight (2021-Present, 2 Defenses)
Previous Titles: WBC Super Welterweight (2011-13, 6 Defenses); Ring Jr. Middleweight (2013); WBC Middleweight (2015-16, 1 Defense); TBRB Middleweight (2015-17); WBO Jr. Middleweight (2016-17); Ring World Middleweight (2015-18, 2 Defenses); IBF Middleweight (2019); Lineal World Middleweight (2015-20, 4 Defenses); TBRB/Ring/WBC/WBA Middleweight (2018-Present, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’8
Weight: 167 ½ lbs.
Stance: Orthodox
Hails from: Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
Record: 59-2-2, 39 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 19-2-1, 10 KO (20-2-1, 11 KO including WBA sub-title fights)
Last Five Opponents: 144-6-1 (.960)
Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Ryan Rhodes TKO12; Josesito Lopez TKO5; Austin Trout UD12; Floyd Mayweather Jr. L12; Erislandy Lara SD12; Miguel Cotto UD12; Amir Khan KO6; Liam Smith KO9; Gennady Golovkin D12, MD12, UD12; Rocky Fielding TKO3; Daniel Jacobs UD12; Sergey Kovalev KO11; Callum Smith UD12; Billy Joe Saunders RTD8; Caleb Plant TKO11; Dmitry Bivol L12; John Ryder UD12
Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Miguel Vazquez SD4, UD10; Carlos Baldomir KO6; Lovemore N’Dou UD12; Kermit Cintron TKO5; Shane Mosley UD12; Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. UD12
Vs.
Jermell Charlo
Age: 33
Titles: WBC super welterweight (2019-Present, 3 Defenses); Lineal/Ring/WBA/IBF World Jr. middleweight (2020-Present, 2 Defenses); TBRB/WBO Jr. middleweight (2022-Present, 0 Defenses)
Previous Titles: WBC super welterweight (2016-18, 3 Defenses)
Height: 5’11
Weight: 167 ½ lbs.
Stance: Orthodox
Hails from: Houston, Texas
Record: 35-1-1, 19 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 7-1-1, 6 KO
Last Five Opponents: 110-6-4 (.933)
Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Vanes Martirosyan UD10; Erickson Lubin (8) KO1; Austin Trout MD12; Tony Harrison KO11; Jeison Rosario KO8; Brian Castano D12, KO10
Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Joachim Alcine TKO6; Tony Harrison L12
The Case for Alvarez: Alvarez, while shorter and not quite as quick as Charlo, Alvarez has other physical edges. While he spent the largest part of his career in the division Charlo is moving up from, Alvarez has grown nicely first into middleweight and now super middleweight. Alvarez is physically strong, carries heavy hands, and retains excellent defensive reflexes. His assaults to the body and ability to slip shots will factor large if Charlo stands in the pocket too long or is too predictable with his offense. Neither man is a big volume puncher and that could be in Alvarez’s favor, allowing the judges to weigh the impact of his offense in a spotty affair.
The Case for Charlo: Charlo will be the taller and longer man in the ring. His defense might not be as valued as it should be. In the Castano rematch, a lot of seemingly fiery exchanges, under closer review, saw Charlo making his man miss in combination regularly. Castano isn’t as experienced or physical as Alvarez, but he was faster than the super middleweight. If Charlo can overcome any rust from over a year out of the ring, and establish the right range for the fight, he has the speed and experience to make land first and beat Alvarez to the counter. Charlo has to land between Alvarez’s shots, stay off the ropes for prolonged stretches, and find ways to establish his jab and frustrate Alvarez. Those are all things he’s capable of and win rounds, but it’s going to take a concentrated twelve rounds.
The Pick: If fights were determined by depth of resume and big fight experience, this would be no contest. Alvarez has those advantages in a big way. They aren’t what determines fights. Alvarez has plenty of what it takes to determine a fight off those on-paper edges. He’s smart, heavy handed, and nothing about this moment will be new to him. Even if he fades a bit late, a problem early in his career and one that appears to be showing again as he ages, banking seven rounds is all it takes to win and he can.
Charlo has waited his whole career for a moment this big. He’s the better athlete, the quicker fighter, and his power should carry despite the jump of two weight classes. That doesn’t mean he can stop Alvarez, but he can make him respect what’s coming back. Charlo’s championship run has been marked by his ability as a knockout sharpshooter, but there was a significant part of his career where he won as a more cerebral boxer.
Charlo hasn’t forgotten those skills. There is reason to pause given his long layoff, but Charlo has the ability to combine his length and skills foundation with the more assertive role he’s played since the Harrison rematch.
Charlo doesn’t have to win every round to win the fight but can he win enough to earn a decision? Alvarez is going to bring the fight and his luck with the judges is hard to ignore. There is often at least one lopsided score in his favor in close, big fights. Bivol had to win what appeared to be at least nine rounds to get seven. Charlo’s tempo and output could work against him here but the thinking is this moment is one where he rises to meet it. His jab to the body and long right upstairs will open up chances for a quick left hook and add up to enough rounds to score the upset on Saturday night. The pick is Charlo by majority decision.
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Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
